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Author: Cochi, Carlena Kay
Resulting in 1 citation.
1. Cochi, Carlena Kay
Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) and Mandated Work/Training: Identifying the Exit and Birth Effects
Ph.D. Dissertation, Cornell University, 1997
Cohort(s): NLSY79
Publisher: UMI - University Microfilms, Bell and Howell Information and Learning
Keyword(s): Aid for Families with Dependent Children (AFDC); Birth Outcomes; Birth Rate; Event History; Fertility; Training, Occupational; Welfare

Virtually all attempts at U.S. welfare reform throughout the history of the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program have relied upon three primary beliefs: (1) that welfare induces undesirable fertility patterns, (2) that welfare receipt creates dependence, and (3) that modifications to the existing AFDC incentive structure can mitigate these undesirable behaviors. A large body of empirical literature provides no consistent support of points (1) and (2) above. This dissertation addresses the third point by testing for unintended consequences of one major welfare reform component, "workfare," during the years 1980 to 1992. Assuming that mandatory work/training represents a net increase in the cost of welfare, conventional search theory predicts that as a marginal recipient's youngest child approaches the age at which work/training program participation becomes mandatory, the woman should exhibit a behavioral response. Specifically, we would expect to observe an increase in the birth rate among recipients (as women seek to re-establish their exempt status) and/or an increase in the welfare exit rate (as women find it more desirable to work or marry than remain on AFDC with work/training requirements). Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) and state welfare policy data, I estimate the probability of birth and welfare exit as a function of the age of a recipient's youngest child using individual, joint and competing risk hazard techniques and event history analysis. Birth and exit patterns are depicted under various scenarios which separately control for recipient/non-recipient variation and variation in the age of the youngest child exemption. Estimation results provide evidence of a birth response to mandated work/training and a weak exit response which runs counter to theoretical predictions. Specifically, recipients under a six year exemption regime are between 1.6 and 3.5 times more likely to have a second birth when their first child is between five and six than are non-recipients. Furthermore, these recipients are between 1.8 and 2.8 times more likely to have a second birth in this region than are those under a three-year old exemption regime. A comparison of the exit hazards under various policy regimes provides some evidence that recipients are less likely to leave AFDC when work/training enrollment is compulsory than when it is not.
Bibliography Citation
Cochi, Carlena Kay. Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) and Mandated Work/Training: Identifying the Exit and Birth Effects. Ph.D. Dissertation, Cornell University, 1997.