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Author: Deming, David

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1.	Deming, David
1.	Early Childhood Intervention and Life-Cycle Skill Development Evidence from Head Start Working Paper, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, April 2009 Cohort(s): Children of the NLSY79, NLSY79 Young Adult Publisher: Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University Keyword(s): Academic Development; Adolescent Fertility; Armed Forces Qualifications Test (AFQT); Child Health; Children, Preschool; Educational Attainment; Grade Retention/Repeat Grade; Head Start; Mothers, Education; Peabody Individual Achievement Test (PIAT- Math); Peabody Individual Achievement Test (PIAT- Reading); Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test (PPVT); Variables, Independent - Covariate Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher. Also presented at the 2008 National Head Start Research Conference and the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management Meetings. This paper provides new evidence on the long-term benefits of Head Start using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. I compare siblings who differ in their participation in the program, controlling for a variety of pre-treatment covariates. I estimate that Head Start participants gain 0.23 standard deviations on a summary index of young adult outcomes. This closes one third of the gap between children with median and bottom quartile family income, and is about 80 percent as large as model programs such as Perry Preschool. The long-term impact for disadvantaged children is large despite "fade out" of test score gains. (JEL I18, I28, I38)
	Bibliography Citation Deming, David. "Early Childhood Intervention and Life-Cycle Skill Development Evidence from Head Start." Working Paper, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, April 2009.

2.	Deming, David
2.	Early Childhood Intervention and Life-Cycle Skill Development: Evidence from Head Start Presented: Boston, MA, The Society of Labor Economists (SOLE) Annual Meetings, May 2009 Cohort(s): Children of the NLSY79, NLSY79, NLSY79 Young Adult Publisher: National Opinion Research Center - NORC Keyword(s): Adolescent Fertility; Armed Forces Qualifications Test (AFQT); Children, Preschool; Grade Retention/Repeat Grade; Head Start; Intergenerational Patterns/Transmission; Mothers, Education; Peabody Individual Achievement Test (PIAT- Math); Peabody Individual Achievement Test (PIAT- Reading); Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test (PPVT); Test Scores/Test theory/IRT; Variables, Independent - Covariate; Wages, Adult; Wages, Youth This paper provides new evidence on the long-term benefits of Head Start for a recent birth cohort of children. I use the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth Mother-Child Supplement (CNLSY) to track children from before birth to early adulthood. The impact of Head Start is identified by comparing siblings in the same family who differ in their participation in the program. While this comparison is imperfect, I assess its validity directly by controlling for a wide variety of pretreatment covariates. I estimate that enrollment in Head Start leads to a long-term impact of about 0.23 standard deviations on a summary index of young adult outcomes. This gain is about one third of the size of the long-term outcome gap between children with family incomes in the bottom quartile and median permanent income in the sample, and is about 80 percent as large as the impact of "model" programs such as Perry Preschool and Abecedarian. For children whose mothers have low levels of cognitive skill, the long-term impact of the program is very large despite zero measured impact on test scores. This strongly suggests that Head Start generates skill gains that are not full captured by school-age test scores.
	Bibliography Citation Deming, David. "Early Childhood Intervention and Life-Cycle Skill Development: Evidence from Head Start." Presented: Boston, MA, The Society of Labor Economists (SOLE) Annual Meetings, May 2009.

3.	Deming, David
3.	Early Childhood Intervention and Life-Cycle Skill Development: Evidence from Head Start American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 1,3 (July 2009): 111-134. Also: http://www.atypon-link.com.proxy.lib.ohio-state.edu/AEAP/doi/pdf/10.1257/app.1.3.111 Cohort(s): Children of the NLSY79, NLSY79 Publisher: American Economic Association Keyword(s): Adolescent Fertility; Armed Forces Qualifications Test (AFQT); Child Care; Children, Preschool; Family Income; Grade Retention/Repeat Grade; Head Start; Modeling, Fixed Effects; Mothers, Education; Peabody Individual Achievement Test (PIAT- Math); Peabody Individual Achievement Test (PIAT- Reading); Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test (PPVT); Poverty; Siblings; Test Scores/Test theory/IRT; Variables, Independent - Covariate; Wage Effects; Wages, Youth; Welfare Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher. This paper provides new evidence on the long-term benefits of Head Start using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. I compare siblings who differ in their participation in the program, controlling for a variety of pre-treatment covariates. I estimate that Head Start participants gain 0.23 standard deviations on a summary index of young adult outcomes. This closes one-third of the gap between children with median and bottom quartile family income, and is about 80 percent as large as model programs such as Perry Preschool. The long-term impact for disadvantaged children is large despite "fadeout" of test score gains.
	Bibliography Citation Deming, David. "Early Childhood Intervention and Life-Cycle Skill Development: Evidence from Head Start." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 1,3 (July 2009): 111-134.

4.	Deming, David
4.	The Growing Importance of Decision-Making on the Job NBER Working Paper No. 28733, National Bureau of Economic Research, April 2021. Also: https://www.nber.org/papers/w28733 Cohort(s): Mature Women, NLSY79, NLSY97, Older Men Publisher: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Keyword(s): Armed Forces Qualifications Test (AFQT); Cognitive Ability; Occupations; Wage Growth Machines increasingly replace people in routine job tasks. The remaining tasks require workers to make open-ended decisions and to have "soft" skills such as problem-solving, critical thinking and adaptability. This paper documents growing demand for decision-making and explores the consequences for life-cycle earnings. Career earnings growth in the U.S. more than doubled between 1960 and 2017, and the age of peak earnings increased from the late 30s to the mid-50s. I show that a substantial share of this shift is explained by increased employment in decision-intensive occupations, which have longer and more gradual periods of earnings growth. To understand these patterns, I develop a model that nests decision-making in a standard human capital framework. Workers predict the output of uncertain, context-dependent actions. Experience reduces prediction error, improving a worker's ability to adapt using data from similar decisions they have made in the past. Experience takes longer to accumulate in high variance, non-routine jobs. I test the predictions of the model using data from the three waves of the NLS. Life-cycle wage growth in decision-intensive occupations has increased over time, and it has increased relatively more for highly-skilled workers.
	Bibliography Citation Deming, David. "The Growing Importance of Decision-Making on the Job." NBER Working Paper No. 28733, National Bureau of Economic Research, April 2021.

5.	Deming, David
5.	The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market NBER Working Paper No. 21473, National Bureau of Economic Research, August 2015. Also: http://www.nber.org/papers/w21473 Cohort(s): NLSY79 Publisher: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Keyword(s): Armed Forces Qualifications Test (AFQT); Cognitive Ability; Noncognitive Skills; Sociability/Socialization/Social Interaction; Wage Growth; Wages The slow growth of high-paying jobs in the U.S. since 2000 and rapid advances in computer technology have sparked fears that human labor will eventually be rendered obsolete. Yet while computers perform cognitive tasks of rapidly increasing complexity, simple human interaction has proven difficult to automate. In this paper, I show that the labor market increasingly rewards social skills. Since 1980, jobs with high social skill requirements have experienced greater relative growth throughout the wage distribution. Moreover, employment and wage growth has been strongest in jobs that require high levels of both cognitive skill and social skill. To understand these patterns, I develop a model of team production where workers "trade tasks" to exploit their comparative advantage. In the model, social skills reduce coordination costs, allowing workers to specialize and trade more efficiently. The model generates predictions about sorting and the relative returns to skill across occupations, which I test and confirm using data from the NLSY79. The female advantage in social skills may have played some role in the narrowing of gender gaps in labor market outcomes since 1980.
	Bibliography Citation Deming, David. "The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market." NBER Working Paper No. 21473, National Bureau of Economic Research, August 2015.

6.	Deming, David
6.	The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market Quarterly Journal of Economics 4,1 (November 2017): 1593-1640. Also: https://academic.oup.com/qje/article/132/4/1593/3861633#96326149 Cohort(s): NLSY79, NLSY97 Publisher: Oxford University Press Keyword(s): Armed Forces Qualifications Test (AFQT); Noncognitive Skills; Occupational Information Network (O*NET); Sociability/Socialization/Social Interaction; Wages Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher. The labor market increasingly rewards social skills. Between 1980 and 2012, jobs requiring high levels of social interaction grew by nearly 12 percentage points as a share of the U.S. labor force. Math-intensive but less social jobs--including many STEM occupations--shrank by 3.3 percentage points over the same period. Employment and wage growth were particularly strong for jobs requiring high levels of both math skill and social skills. To understand these patterns, I develop a model of team production where workers "trade tasks" to exploit their comparative advantage. In the model, social skills reduce coordination costs, allowing workers to specialize and work together more efficiently. The model generates predictions about sorting and the relative returns to skill across occupations, which I investigate using data from the NLSY79 and the NLSY97. Using a comparable set of skill measures and covariates across survey waves, I find that the labor market return to social skills was much greater in the 2000s than in the mid-1980s and 1990s.
	Bibliography Citation Deming, David. "The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market." Quarterly Journal of Economics 4,1 (November 2017): 1593-1640.

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