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Author: Flinn, Christopher Jay

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1.	Brown, Meta Flinn, Christopher Jay
1.	Investment in Child Quality Over Marital States Working Paper, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin and Department of Economics, New York University, January 2004. Also: http://www.nyu.edu/econ/user/flinnc/papers/BrownFlinn0104.pdf Cohort(s): Children of the NLSY79 Publisher: Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin - Madison Keyword(s): Divorce; Family Characteristics; Family Income; Fathers, Involvement; Income; Marital Stability; Marriage; Parental Marital Status; Peabody Individual Achievement Test (PIAT- Math); Peabody Individual Achievement Test (PIAT- Reading) Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher. Abstract Policies governing divorce and parenting, such as child support enforcement, child custody regulations,and marital dissolution requirements, optimize some combination of parents' and children's welfare. Recent research has produced evidence on the responses of divorce rates to unilateral divorce laws and child support enforcement. We argue that in order to assess the child welfare impact of family policies, one must consider their influence on parents' investments in their children as well as the stability of the marginal marriage. Further, we expect that changes in the regulatory environment induce changes in the distribution of resources within both intact and divided families. This paper presents a continuous time model of parents' marital status choices and investments in children, with the goal of determining how policies toward divorce influence outcomes for children. Preliminary estimates are derived for model parameters of interest, and simulations based on the model explore the effects of changes in standard custody allocations on outcomes for children of married and divorced parents.
	Bibliography Citation Brown, Meta and Christopher Jay Flinn. "Investment in Child Quality Over Marital States." Working Paper, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin and Department of Economics, New York University, January 2004.

2.	Flinn, Christopher Jay
2.	Behavioral Models of Wage Growth and Job Change over the Life Cycle Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Chicago, 1985 Cohort(s): Young Men Publisher: UMI - University Microfilms, Bell and Howell Information and Learning Keyword(s): Behavior; Job Turnover; Labor Economics; Life Cycle Research; Wage Growth; Work Histories
	Bibliography Citation Flinn, Christopher Jay. Behavioral Models of Wage Growth and Job Change over the Life Cycle. Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Chicago, 1985.

3.	Flinn, Christopher Jay
3.	Equilibrium Wage and Dismissal Processes Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 15,2 (April 1997): 221-236. Also: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1392307 Cohort(s): NLSY79 Publisher: American Statistical Association Keyword(s): Wage Dynamics; Wage Equations; Wage Theory; Wages An equilibrium model is developed and estimated of the labor market in which inefficient employees are systematically eliminated from the sector of the market characterized by asymmetric information and moral hazard. Systematic selection on the distribution of productivity characteristics produces wage sequences that are increasing in tenure for employees never previously terminated even in the absence of long-term contracting between employees and individual firms. Sufficient conditions are provided for there to exist a unique termination-contract type of equilibrium. The equilibrium model is estimated using microlevel data from the national Longitudinal Survey of Youth panel. Photocopy available from ABI/INFORM
	Bibliography Citation Flinn, Christopher Jay. "Equilibrium Wage and Dismissal Processes." Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 15,2 (April 1997): 221-236.

4.	Flinn, Christopher Jay
4.	Wages and Job Mobility of Young Workers Journal of Political Economy 94,3 (June 1986): S88-S110. Also: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1837177 Cohort(s): Young Men Publisher: University of Chicago Press Keyword(s): Heterogeneity; Mobility; Research Methodology; Wages This paper presents a discrete-time version of Jovanovic's model of worker-firm matching. Descriptive evidence is presented that supports the notion that unobserved worker-firm heterogeneity is an important component in the intertemporal structure of wages for young workers. A structural econometric model of wage dynamics under worker-firm sorting is developed and estimated. Finally, a formal test of the matching model is carried out, and the matching structure on intertemporal covariances of wages is not rejected. The results indicate the necessity of jointly considering processes of turnover and wage growth when analyzing the labor market experiences of young workers.
	Bibliography Citation Flinn, Christopher Jay. "Wages and Job Mobility of Young Workers." Journal of Political Economy 94,3 (June 1986): S88-S110.

5.	Flinn, Christopher Jay Brown, Meta
5.	Investment in Child Quality over Marital States Presented: Bilbao, Spain, European Society for Population Economics (ESPE), June 12-15, 2002. Also: http://www.eco.rug.nl/~espe2002/Book_of_Abstracts.pdf Cohort(s): Children of the NLSY79, NLSY97 Publisher: European Society for Population Economics (ESPE) Keyword(s): Divorce; Fathers, Involvement; Household Composition; Income; Marriage; Methods/Methodology; Parental Marital Status; Peabody Individual Achievement Test (PIAT- Math); Peabody Individual Achievement Test (PIAT- Reading); Test Scores/Test theory/IRT Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher. Policy governing divorce and parenting, such as child support enforcement, child custody regulations and laws controlling marital dissolution, takes as its objective the optimization of some combination of parents? and children?s welfare. While recent research has produced strong evidence on the effects of such policies as unilateral divorce and child support enforcement on divorce rates, information on the child welfare impact of divorce policies would be of use in evaluating the desirability of stabilizing the marginal marriage. Additionally, we expect that changes in the regulatory environment induce changes in the distribution of resources within intact and divided families. This paper presents a continuous time model of parents? marital status choices and investments in children, with the goal of determining how policies toward divorce influence outcomes for children and the distribution of resources within the family. The model addresses the detrimental effects of both realized and impending divorce on child outcomes that we observe in the NLSY, and simulated data based on the model replicates observed patterns in parents? marital status, parents? child investment behavior and outcomes for children.
	Bibliography Citation Flinn, Christopher Jay and Meta Brown. "Investment in Child Quality over Marital States." Presented: Bilbao, Spain, European Society for Population Economics (ESPE), June 12-15, 2002.

6.	Flinn, Christopher Jay Heckman, James J.
6.	Are Unemployment and Out of the Labor Force Behaviorally Distinct Labor Force States? Journal of Labor Economics 1,1 (January 1983): 28-42. Also: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2534929 Cohort(s): Young Men Publisher: University of Chicago Press Keyword(s): Job Search; Unemployment; Work History This paper tests the hypothesis that the classifications "unemployed" and "out of the labor force" are behaviorally meaningless distinctions. This hypothesis is rejected. Distinct behavioral equations govern transitions from out of the labor force to employment and from unemployment to employment. The evidence reported in this paper is broadly consistent with versions of search theory in which unemployment is a state that facilitates the job search process. In an appendix, the authors demonstrate that log concavity of the wage-offer distribution implies that the exit rate from unemployment is an increasing function of the rate of arrival of job offers.
	Bibliography Citation Flinn, Christopher Jay and James J. Heckman. "Are Unemployment and Out of the Labor Force Behaviorally Distinct Labor Force States?" Journal of Labor Economics 1,1 (January 1983): 28-42.

7.	Flinn, Christopher Jay Heckman, James J.
7.	Models for the Analysis of Labor Force Dynamics In: Advances in Econometrics 1. R. Basemann and G. Rhodes, eds., Greenwich, CT: JAI Press, 1982 Cohort(s): Young Men Publisher: JAI Press, Inc. Keyword(s): Behavioral Differences; Heterogeneity; Job Search; Job Turnover; Labor Force Participation; Labor Turnover; Markov chain / Markov model; Work Histories This article presents new econometric methods for the empirical analysis of individual labor market histories. The techniques developed here extend previous work on continuous time models in four ways: (1) a structural economic interpretation of these models is presented; (2) time varying explanatory variables are introduced into the analysis in a general way; (3) unobserved heterogeneity components are permitted to be correlated across spells; and (4) a flexible model of duration dependence is presented that accommodates many previous models as a special case and that permits tests among competing specifications within a unified framework. In addition, longer range types of state dependence can be introduced into the model and their empirical importance tested. Two sets of empirical results are presented. The first set is an analysis of employment and nonemployment data using both regression and maximum likelihood procedures. Standard regression methods are shown to perform rather poorly and to produce estimates wildly at variance with the estimates from our maximum likelihood procedure. The maximum likelihood estimates are more in accord with a priori theoretical notions. A major conclusion of this analysis is that the discrete time Markov model widely used in labor market analysis is inconsistent with the data. The second set of empirical results is a test of the hypothesis that "unemployment" and "out of the labor force" are behaviorally different labor market states. Contrary to recent claims, the authors find that they are separate states for the sample of young men utilized.
	Bibliography Citation Flinn, Christopher Jay and James J. Heckman. "Models for the Analysis of Labor Force Dynamics" In: Advances in Econometrics 1. R. Basemann and G. Rhodes, eds., Greenwich, CT: JAI Press, 1982

8.	Flinn, Christopher Jay Heckman, James J.
8.	New Methods for Analyzing Structural Models of Labor Force Dynamics Journal of Econometrics 18,1 (January 1982): 115-168. Also: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0304407682900975 Cohort(s): Young Men Publisher: Elsevier Keyword(s): Labor Force Participation; Labor Turnover; Unemployment; Work Histories New econometric methods are presented for the analysis of labor force dynamics. The economic models discussed assume that rational agents make choices about their employment and labor force activity in the presence of uncertainty about fundamental aspects of their labor market environment. The economic theory of decision-making under uncertainty is used to produce three econometric models of dynamic discrete choice: 1. for a single spell of unemployment, 2. for an equilibrium 2-state model of employment and non-employment, and 3. for a general 3-state model with a non-market sector. A fundamental condition required in this analysis is a recoverability condition that is implicit in all econometric analyses of truncated data. This condition must be fulfilled in order to recover an untruncated distribution from a truncated distribution with a known point of truncation. A recoverability condition will be fulfilled only if the untruncated distribution is assumed to belong to a parametric family. Most econometric models for the analysis of truncated data are non-parametrically underidentified, and the structural estimators often violate standard regularity conditions. The standard asymptotic theory is altered to explain this crucial characteristic of many structural models of labor force dynamics. [ABI/Inform]
	Bibliography Citation Flinn, Christopher Jay and James J. Heckman. "New Methods for Analyzing Structural Models of Labor Force Dynamics." Journal of Econometrics 18,1 (January 1982): 115-168.

9.	Flinn, Christopher Jay Kulka, Richard Moffitt, Robert A.
9.	Introduction to the Journal of Human Resources Special Issue on Data Quality Journal of Human Resources 36,3 (Summer 2001): 413-625. Also: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3069624 Cohort(s): NLSY79 Publisher: University of Wisconsin Press Keyword(s): Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI); Data Quality/Consistency; Longitudinal Data Sets; Modeling; Nonresponse A conference entitled "Data Quality Issues in Longitudinal Surveys" was held at the Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan on October 28-29, 1998. The papers included in this symposium are revised versions of seven of the papers that were presented. Topics discussed include reducing panel attrition and the search for effective policy instruments; an analysis of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 recall experiment; controlling for seam problems in duration model estimates with application to the current population survey and the computer aided telephone interview/computer aided personal interview overlap survey; correcting for selective nonresponse in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth using multiple imputation; comparing data quality of fertility and first sexual intercourse histories; attrition and follow-up in the Indonesia Family Life Survey; and the quality of retrospective data, based on an examination of long-term recall in a developing country
	Bibliography Citation Flinn, Christopher Jay, Richard Kulka and Robert A. Moffitt. "Introduction to the Journal of Human Resources Special Issue on Data Quality ." Journal of Human Resources 36,3 (Summer 2001): 413-625.

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