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Author: Karlson, Kristian Bernt

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1.	Andersen, Lars Hojsgaard Karlson, Kristian Bernt
1.	The Impact of Paternal Incarceration on Boys' Delinquency: A New Method for Adjusting for Model-Driven Bias Presented: Philadelphia PA, American Society of Criminology (ASC) Annual Meeting, November 2017 Cohort(s): NLSY97 Publisher: American Society of Criminology Keyword(s): Cross-national Analysis; Delinquency/Gang Activity; Denmark, Danish; Incarceration/Jail; Modeling; Parental Influences; Sons Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher. Paternal incarceration has a range of deleterious effects on children, especially on boys' behavioral problems, and the damaging impact of paternal incarceration on boys' delinquency is among the most well-established findings in studies of the intergenerational consequences of incarceration. Measures of sons' delinquency are often dichotomous, indicating whether a son exhibits delinquent behavior, and scholars of criminology often apply nonlinear probability models to analyze such outcomes. But in so doing, we involuntarily make our estimates vulnerable to model-driven bias, because these models are sensitive to their own fundamental assumptions. In this paper, we introduce to scholars of criminology a recent advance in the methodology of nonlinear models, the "KHB method". We use data from the NLSY97 to illustrate that existing strategies for estimating the impact of paternal incarceration on sons' delinquency produce biased estimates, and we use high quality registry data from Denmark to show that this is true even across sentence length and across the distribution of sons' abilities. Our bias-corrected estimates still support the claim that paternal incarceration is damaging to sons' delinquency, but they also cause concern regarding the widespread use of nonlinear models in criminological research.
	Bibliography Citation Andersen, Lars Hojsgaard and Kristian Bernt Karlson. "The Impact of Paternal Incarceration on Boys' Delinquency: A New Method for Adjusting for Model-Driven Bias." Presented: Philadelphia PA, American Society of Criminology (ASC) Annual Meeting, November 2017.

2.	Karlson, Kristian Bernt
2.	College as Equalizer? Testing the Selectivity Hypothesis Social Science Research 80 (May 2019): 216-229. Also: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0049089X17308244 Cohort(s): NLSY79 Publisher: Elsevier Keyword(s): College Degree; Family Income; Intergenerational Patterns/Transmission; Mobility, Social; Selectivity Bias/Selection Bias; Socioeconomic Status (SES) Stratification research shows that occupational origins and destinations are weakly associated among individuals holding a college degree. The finding is taken to support the hypothesis that college equalizes opportunities and promotes social mobility. I test the competing hypothesis that the high level of social mobility reported for college degree holders results from the selectivity of this group. To control for selectivity, I reweigh a sample of college degree holders by the inverse probability of being a college degree holder conditional on observable characteristics of students before they enter college, including characteristics such as cognitive ability, personality traits, and beliefs about the future. Analyzing data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (1979), I find no support for the selectivity hypothesis. These findings align with evidence based on indirect tests of the hypothesis, and indicate that college indeed appears to be an equalizer.
	Bibliography Citation Karlson, Kristian Bernt. "College as Equalizer? Testing the Selectivity Hypothesis." Social Science Research 80 (May 2019): 216-229.

3.	Karlson, Kristian Bernt
3.	Expectation Formation for All? Group Differences in Student Response to Signals about Academic Performance Sociological Quarterly 60,4 (2019): 716-737. Also: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00380253.2019.1580549 Cohort(s): Children of the NLSY79, NLSY79 Young Adult Publisher: Wiley Online Keyword(s): Educational Aspirations/Expectations; Grade Point Average (GPA)/Grades; Home Environment; Socioeconomic Status (SES) Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher. Theories of adolescent expectation formation hypothesize that socially and academically disadvantaged students are less responsive to signals about their academic performance when forming educational expectations. To test this hypothesis, I examine variation in student responses to new information about their academic performance by a rich set of background characteristics. I find little support for the hypothesis. In contrast, low-SES students who are high performing or come from supportive home environments appear to be the most responsive to new information about their academic performance. I discuss the implications of this finding for research on expectation formation among adolescents.
	Bibliography Citation Karlson, Kristian Bernt. "Expectation Formation for All? Group Differences in Student Response to Signals about Academic Performance." Sociological Quarterly 60,4 (2019): 716-737.

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