Search Results

Author: Manski, Charles F.
Resulting in 10 citations.
1. Dominitz, Jeff
Manski, Charles F.
Fischhoff, Baruch
Who Are Youth "At Risk"? Expectations Evidence in the NLSY97
In: Social Awakening: Adolescent Behavior as Adulthood Approaches. R.T. Michael, ed. New York, NY: Russell Sage Foundation, 2001: pp. 230-257
Cohort(s): NLSY97
Publisher: Russell Sage Foundation
Keyword(s): Delinquency/Gang Activity; High School Completion/Graduates; High School Dropouts; Incarceration/Jail; Parenthood; Pregnancy, Adolescent; Probability judgments (also see Risk Perception); Risk Perception

Chapter: Analyzed data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1997 Cohort on the expectations of youths and their parents. This study examined responses to subjective probabilities of completing high school by age 20, serving time in jail or prison by age 20, and becoming a parent by age 20. The perceptions of the 2,922 youths (aged 16-17 yrs) and 2,922 parents were compared, and the cross-sectional variation of expectations with demographic attributes and past experiences were examined. Generally, moderate positive associations were found between the responses of youths and those of their parents. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2000 APA, all rights reserved)
Bibliography Citation
Dominitz, Jeff, Charles F. Manski and Baruch Fischhoff. "Who Are Youth "At Risk"? Expectations Evidence in the NLSY97" In: Social Awakening: Adolescent Behavior as Adulthood Approaches. R.T. Michael, ed. New York, NY: Russell Sage Foundation, 2001: pp. 230-257
2. Fischhoff, Baruch
Parker, Andrew M.
Bruine de Bruin, Wändi
Downs, Julie
Palmgren, Claire
Dawes, Robyn
Manski, Charles F.
Teen Expectations for Significant Life Events
Public Opinion Quarterly 64,2 (Summer 2000): 189-205.
Also: http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/content/64/2/189.full.pdf+html
Cohort(s): NLSY97
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Keyword(s): Crime; Educational Aspirations/Expectations; Educational Returns; Employment, Youth; Ethnic Differences; Gender Differences; Health Factors; High School Diploma; Human Capital Theory; Pregnancy and Pregnancy Outcomes; Probability judgments (also see Risk Perception); Psychological Effects; Racial Differences; Risk Perception

Managing risks is an important part of growing up. Young people must decide whether to do things that they do not like (e.g., homework) in the hopes of getting things that they do (e.g., good jobs). They must also decide whether to avoid doing things that they do like (e.g., drinking heavily) in order to reduce the risk of outcomes that they do not (e.g., auto accidents). Making these decisions effectively requires accurate assessments of the probabilities of uncertain events occurring in their lives. As a result, risk perceptions play a central role in many psychological theories of adolescent development and health behavior (e.g., Beyth-Marom and Fischhoff 1997; Feldman and Elliott 1990; Fischhoff, Downs, and Bruine de Bruin 1998; Institute of Medicine 1999; Jacobs and Ganzel 1993) and in interventions designed to improve these perceptions (e.g., Baron and Brown 1991; Millstein, Petersen, and Nightingale 1993; Schulenberg, Maggs, and Hurnelmans 1997). Risk (and benefit) perceptions are also central to economic theories of human capital formation, which hold that teens' willingness to invest in themselves should reflect the expected return on that investment. Thus, education should be more valuable to teens who expect it to increase their chances of employment and who expect to live long enough to reap those rewards (Dominitz and Manski 1996). The present study reports the expectations reported by teen respondents to the 1997 National Longitudinal Study of Youth (NLSY97; Bureau of Labor Statistics 1998; Center for Human Resource Research 1998), regarding 18 significant life events. The questions were formulated in order to allow comparison of answers with public health statistics. The set of questions was designed to evaluate teens' usage of the probability response mode as well (see also Budescu and Wallsten 1995; Dominitz and Manski 1997a, 1997b; Quadrel, Fischhoff, and Davis 1993; Yates 1990). The overall NLSY97 question pool reflects the work of many investig ators, specialists in the topics of NLSY97's many modules. These expectation questions were administered to 15- and 16-year-olds, using computers brought into respondents' homes. Its questions were refined through one-on-one focused interviews with a diverse group of Pittsburgh-area teens. ? 2000 by the American Association for Public Opinion Research
Bibliography Citation
Fischhoff, Baruch, Andrew M. Parker, Wändi Bruine de Bruin, Julie Downs, Claire Palmgren, Robyn Dawes and Charles F. Manski. "Teen Expectations for Significant Life Events ." Public Opinion Quarterly 64,2 (Summer 2000): 189-205.
3. Goldberger, Arthur
Manski, Charles F.
Review Article: The Bell Curve by Herrnstein and Murray
Journal of Economic Literature 33,2 (June 1995): 762-776.
Also: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2729026
Cohort(s): Children of the NLSY79, NLSY79
Publisher: American Economic Association
Keyword(s): I.Q.; Racial Differences; Test Scores/Test theory/IRT; Tests and Testing

Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher.

Goldberger and Manaski critique Herrnstein and Murray's "The Bell Curve" from an economics perspective, articulating flaws in the study's empirical analysis as well as its reliance on insufficient anecdotal evidence. Among their arguments is that Murray and Herrnstein are "obsessed" with using NLSY data and that NLSY regressions offer "no meaningful empirical evidence on the dynamic of American society" as it pertains to the claims of "The Bell Curve."
Bibliography Citation
Goldberger, Arthur and Charles F. Manski. "Review Article: The Bell Curve by Herrnstein and Murray." Journal of Economic Literature 33,2 (June 1995): 762-776.
4. Goldberger, Arthur
Manski, Charles F.
The Bell Curve: A Perspective From Economics
Focus 17, 2 (Fall-Winter 1995).
Also: http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/irp/pubs/focusold/17.2.a/bell_curve_econ.txt
Cohort(s): Children of the NLSY79, NLSY79
Publisher: Institute for Research on Poverty (IRP), University of Wisconsin - Madison
Keyword(s): I.Q.; Racial Differences; Test Scores/Test theory/IRT

Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher.

Goldberger and Manaski critique Herrnstein and Murray's "The Bell Curve" from an economics perspective, articulating flaws in the study's empirical analysis as well as its reliance on insufficient anecdotal evidence. Among their arguments is that Murray and Herrnstein are "obsessed" with using NLSY data and that NLSY regressions offer "no meaningful empirical evidence on the dynamic of American society" as it pertains to the claims of "The Bell Curve."
Bibliography Citation
Goldberger, Arthur and Charles F. Manski. "The Bell Curve: A Perspective From Economics." Focus 17, 2 (Fall-Winter 1995).
5. Horowitz, Joel L.
Manski, Charles F.
Censoring of Outcomes and Regressors Due to Survey Nonresponse: Identification and Estimation Using Weights and Imputations
Journal of Econometrics 84,1 (May 1998): 37-58.
Also: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304407697000778
Cohort(s): NLSY79
Publisher: Elsevier
Keyword(s): Data Quality/Consistency; Longitudinal Data Sets; Longitudinal Surveys; Nonresponse

Survey nonresponse makes identification of population parameters problematic. Except in special cases, identification is possible only if one makes untestable assumptions about the distribution of the missing data. However, nonresponse does not preclude identification of bounds on parameters. This paper shows how identified bounds on unidentified population parameters can be obtained under several forms of nonresponse. Organizations conducting major surveys commonly release public-use data files that provide nonresponse weights or imputations to be used for estimating population parameters. The paper shows how to bound the asymptotic bias of estimates using weights and imputations. The results are illustrated with empirical examples based on the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Photocopy available from ABI/INFORM.
Bibliography Citation
Horowitz, Joel L. and Charles F. Manski. "Censoring of Outcomes and Regressors Due to Survey Nonresponse: Identification and Estimation Using Weights and Imputations." Journal of Econometrics 84,1 (May 1998): 37-58.
6. Manski, Charles F.
Pepper, John V.
Monotone Instrumental Variables with an Application to the Returns to Schooling
NBER Technical Working Paper No. 224, National Bureau of Economic Research, February 1998.
Also: http://www.nber.org/papers/t0224
Cohort(s): NLSY79
Publisher: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Keyword(s): Armed Forces Qualifications Test (AFQT); Educational Returns; Schooling; Treatment Response: Monotone, Semimonotone, or Concave-monotone; Variables, Independent - Covariate; Variables, Instrumental

Econometric analyses of treatment response commonly use instrumental variable (IV) assumptions to identify treatment effects. Yet the credibility of IV assumptions is often a matter of considerable disagreement, with much debate about whether some covariate is or is not a "valid instrument" in an application of interest. There is therefore good reason to consider weaker but more credible assumptions. assumptions. To this end, we introduce monotone instrumental variable (MIV) A particularly interesting special case of an MIV assumption is monotone treatment selection (MTS). IV and MIV assumptions may be imposed alone or in combination with other assumptions. We study the identifying power of MIV assumptions in three informational settings: MIV alone; MIV combined with the classical linear response assumption; MIV combined with the monotone treatment response (MTR) assumption. We apply the results to the problem of inference on the returns to schooling. We analyze wage data reported by white male respondents to the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) and use the respondent's AFQT score as an MIV. We find that this MIV assumption has little identifying power when imposed alone. However combining the MIV assumption with the MTR and MTS assumptions yields fairly tight bounds on two distinct measures of the returns to schooling.

Published as: Manski, Charles F. and John V. Pepper.
"Monotone Instrumental Variables With An Application To The Returns To Schooling," Econometrica 68,4 (July 2000): 997-1010. Also: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2999533

Bibliography Citation
Manski, Charles F. and John V. Pepper. "Monotone Instrumental Variables with an Application to the Returns to Schooling." NBER Technical Working Paper No. 224, National Bureau of Economic Research, February 1998.
7. Manski, Charles F.
Pepper, John V.
Monotone Instrumental Variables: with an Application to the Returns to Schooling
Working Paper 308, Thomas Jefferson Center for Political Economy Working Paper Series, University of Virginia, January 1998
Cohort(s): NLSY79
Publisher: Department of Economics, University of Virginia
Keyword(s): Armed Forces Qualifications Test (AFQT); Educational Returns; Schooling; Treatment Response: Monotone, Semimonotone, or Concave-monotone; Variables, Independent - Covariate; Variables, Instrumental

Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher.

Econometric analyses of treatment response commonly use instrumental variable (IV) assumptions to identify treatment effects. Yet the credibility of IV assumptions is often a matter of considerable disagreement, with much debate about whether some covariate is or is not a "valid instrument" in an application of interest. There is therefore good reason to consider weaker but more credible assumptions. To this end, we introduce monotone instrumental variable (MIV) assumptions. A particularly interesting special case of an MIV assumption is monotone treatment selection (MTS). IV and MIV assumptions may be imposed alone or in combination with other assumptions. We study the identifying power of MIV assumptions in three informational settings: MIV alone; MIV combined with the classical linear response assumption; MIV combined with the monotone treatment response (MTR) assumption. We apply the results to the problem of inference on the returns to schooling. We analyze wage data reported by white male respondents to the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) and use the respondent's AFQT score as an MIV. We find that this MIV assumption has little identifying power when imposed alone. However combining the MIV assumption with the MTR and MTS assumptions yields fairly tight bounds on two distinct measures of the returns to schooling.
Bibliography Citation
Manski, Charles F. and John V. Pepper. "Monotone Instrumental Variables: with an Application to the Returns to Schooling." Working Paper 308, Thomas Jefferson Center for Political Economy Working Paper Series, University of Virginia, January 1998.
8. Manski, Charles F.
Pepper, John V.
Monotone Instrumental Variables: With an Application to the Returns to Schooling
Econometrica 68,4 (July 2000): 997-1010.
Also: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2999533
Cohort(s): NLSY79
Publisher: Blackwell Publishing, Inc. => Wiley Online
Keyword(s): Schooling; Treatment Response: Monotone, Semimonotone, or Concave-monotone; Variables, Independent - Covariate; Variables, Instrumental

Introduction: For fifty years econometric analyses of treatment response have made extensive use of instrumental variable (IV) assumptions holding that mean response is constant across specified subpopulations of a population of interest. Yet the credibility of mean independence conditions and other IV assumptions has often been a matter of considerable disagreement, with much debate about whether some covariate is or is not a "valid instrument" in an application of interest. There is therefore good reason to consider weaker but more credible assumptions. To this end, we introduce monotone instrumental variable (MIV) assumptions holding that mean response varies weakly monotonically across specified subpopulations. We study the identifying power of these MIV assumptions and give an empirical application. The findings reported here add to the literature developing nonparametric bounds on treatment effects.
Bibliography Citation
Manski, Charles F. and John V. Pepper. "Monotone Instrumental Variables: With an Application to the Returns to Schooling." Econometrica 68,4 (July 2000): 997-1010.
9. Manski, Charles F.
Pepper, John V.
Petrie, Carol V.
Informing America's Policy on Illegal Drugs: What We Don't Know Keeps Hurting Us
Washington DC: National Academy Press, 2001.
Cohort(s): NLSY79
Publisher: National Academy Press
Keyword(s): Data Analysis; Drug Use; Longitudinal Data Sets; Longitudinal Surveys; NLS Description

Adequate data and research are essential to judge the effectiveness of the nation's efforts to cope with its illegal drug problem. Given the importance of the illegal drug problem and the continuing controversy about how best to confront it, there is a pressing need for the nation to assess the existing portfolio of data and research and to initiate stronger efforts where necessary. Accordingly, at the request of the U.S. Office of National Drug Control Policy, the National Research Council established the Committee on Data and Research for Policy on Illegal Drugs. The committee was given charge to: 1. Assess existing data sources and recent research studies that support policy analysis; 2. identify new data and research that may enable the development of more effective means of evaluating the consequences of alternative drug control policies; and 3. explore ways to integrate theory and findings from diverse disciplines to increase understanding of drug abuse and the operation of drug markets.
Bibliography Citation
Manski, Charles F., John V. Pepper and Carol V. Petrie. Informing America's Policy on Illegal Drugs: What We Don't Know Keeps Hurting Us. Washington DC: National Academy Press, 2001..
10. Manski, Charles F.
Sandefur, Gary D.
McLanahan, Sara S.
Powers, Daniel A.
Alternative Estimates of the Effects of Family Structure During Childhood on High School Graduation
Journal of the American Statistical Association 87,417 (March 1992): 25-37.
Also: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2290448
Cohort(s): NLSY79
Publisher: American Statistical Association
Keyword(s): Educational Attainment; Family Structure; Heterogeneity; High School Completion/Graduates; Parental Influences; Racial Differences

A good deal of research in the past few years has found significant relationships between family structure during childhood and various outcomes during the teen and early adult years. There may, however, be unmeasured variables which affect both family structure and teen or early adult outcomes. The apparent effects of family structure may be due to these unmeasured variables, which affect both the likelihood of maintaining an intact marriage and parenting effectiveness. The authors estimate a model that attempts to take this unmeasured heterogeneity into account. Another weakness of past studies is that they make very strong assumptions about the relationship between family structure and early outcomes. Relaxing these assumptions, estimate nonparametric bounds on the magnitude of the relationship between family structure and early outcomes are estimated.
Bibliography Citation
Manski, Charles F., Gary D. Sandefur, Sara S. McLanahan and Daniel A. Powers. "Alternative Estimates of the Effects of Family Structure During Childhood on High School Graduation." Journal of the American Statistical Association 87,417 (March 1992): 25-37.