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Author: Morgan, S. Philip

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1.	Furstenberg, Frank F. Jr. Brooks-Gunn, Jeanne Morgan, S. Philip
1.	Adolescent Mothers and Their Children in Later Life Family Planning Perspectives 19,4 (July-August 1987): 142-151. Also: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2135159 Cohort(s): NLSY79 Publisher: Alan Guttmacher Institute Keyword(s): Adolescent Fertility; Childbearing; Children; Current Population Survey (CPS) / CPS-Fertility Supplement; Educational Attainment; First Birth; Marital Status; Mothers, Adolescent; National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG); Socioeconomic Status (SES); Teenagers; Work Attachment Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher. Reviews the results of a longitudinal study of over 300 primarily urban black women who gave birth as adolescents in the 1960s with follow-up results obtained from reinterviews in 1972 and 1984 with both the mothers and their then teenage children. This study found that a substantial majority of the mothers completed high school, found regular employment, and escaped dependence on public assistance. However, while many teenage mothers do break out of the cycle of poverty, the majority did not fare as well as they would have had they been able to postpone parenthood. Data from the 1982 NLSY, 1983 Current Population Survey, and 1982 National Survey of Family Growth are used to provide comparisons with national samples of women. Interviews with the teenage children of the mothers originally interviewed in 1966 revealed that: (1) mother's economic status had pervasive effects on the child's academic performance; (2) receipt of welfare in the first five years after the child's birth had a negative impact on preschool behavior and temperament; and (3) mother's marital status was clearly associated with poor academic performance and behavior problems among adolescents.
	Bibliography Citation Furstenberg, Frank F. Jr., Jeanne Brooks-Gunn and S. Philip Morgan. "Adolescent Mothers and Their Children in Later Life." Family Planning Perspectives 19,4 (July-August 1987): 142-151.

2.	Furstenberg, Frank F. Jr. Brooks-Gunn, Jeanne Morgan, S. Philip
2.	Adolescent Mothers in Later Life New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 1987 Cohort(s): Young Women Publisher: Cambridge University Press Keyword(s): Childbearing; Children; Educational Attainment; Fertility; First Birth; Marital Status; Mothers, Adolescent; Socioeconomic Status (SES); Teenagers; Work Attachment Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher. The National Longitudinal Surveys (NLS) are a set of studies designed to examine the sources of variation in labor-market experience and behavior among four age and sex groups in the United States population: women 30-44, men 45-59 and men and women 14-24. The surveys began in 1966 and have been continued through 1984. In 1979 a new cohort was added, youth ages 14-21. In the analysis presented in Table 2.2 the data from the Survey of Young Women aged 29-36 are used. The women were interviewed for the first time in 1968 and followed through 1982. The cohort is represented by a multistage probability sample of 5,533 women, designed to represent the civilian, noninstitutional population of the United States at the time of the initial survey. A weight is used to correct for noninterviews, oversampling of certain population subgroups, sample attrition and chance variation from population distributions. Included in the NLS is information about labor-market experience: current employment status, characteristics of current or more recent job, and work experience; human-capital and other socioeconomic variables: early formative influences, migration, education, training, health, marital and family characteristics, financial characteristics, job and work attitudes, educational and job aspirations, retrospective evaluation of labor-market experiences, socialpsychological measures; and environmental variables.
	Bibliography Citation Furstenberg, Frank F. Jr., Jeanne Brooks-Gunn and S. Philip Morgan. Adolescent Mothers in Later Life. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 1987.

3.	Morgan, S. Philip Quesnel-Vallée, Amélie
3.	Life Course Dynamics of Unintended and Mistimed Pregnancies Among American Women Presented: Philadelphia, PA, American Sociological Association Annual Meeting, August 12, 2005. Also: http://www.allacademic.com//meta/p_mla_apa_research_citation/0/2/0/9/8/pages20988/p20988-1.php Cohort(s): NLSY79 Publisher: American Sociological Association Keyword(s): Fertility; Life Course; Pregnancy and Pregnancy Outcomes; Sexual Behavior Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher. This study relies on longitudinal, prospective assessments of fertility intentions and behaviors of 1957 to 1961 birth cohorts of U.S. women to evaluate the correspondence between pregnancies explicitly reported as unwanted or mistimed, and those associated with changing intentions. We first assess the contribution of unwanted and mistimed pregnancies to the observed fertility of these cohorts of women, and then examine the dynamic contribution of life course factors to changing intentions. We build on a framework developed by Bongaarts (2001) in selecting the life course factors that merit attention in this regard. Data were drawn from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, a nationally representative survey which prospectively follows the parallel evolution of fertility intentions and reproductive histories. To ensure that the analyses reach the near end of the respondents' reproductive years, the sample is restricted to 2,720 women 40 years or older in 2002 (vital registration statistics indicate that only 1-2% of the U.S. TFR is due to women above 40).
	Bibliography Citation Morgan, S. Philip and Amélie Quesnel-Vallée. "Life Course Dynamics of Unintended and Mistimed Pregnancies Among American Women." Presented: Philadelphia, PA, American Sociological Association Annual Meeting, August 12, 2005.

4.	Morgan, S. Philip Rackin, Heather
4.	Comparing Prospective and Retrospective Measures of Unwanted Fertility Presented: Dallas, TX, Population Association of America Meetings, April 2010 Cohort(s): NLSY79 Publisher: Population Association of America Keyword(s): Fertility; Motherhood; Mothers; Pregnancy and Pregnancy Outcomes; Wantedness Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher. We use the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to compare levels and correlates of prospective and retrospective measurements of unwanted fertility. Specifically, we contrast traditional retrospective measures with a new strategy that uses prospective intention measures that were asked 17 times over a three decade period. For instance, if a respondent reports in two consecutive surveys that she intends no more children, then we code a birth prior to the next survey as “prospectively unwanted”. Our preliminary results show that this prospective measure of unwanted fertility identifies 14.7% of all births to this cohort as unwanted. Traditional retrospective reports identify only 9.7% of births as unwanted. Planned analyses will compare the correlates of unwanted births using these two approaches as well as correlates of factors that predict when a birth will be differentially coded using these two approaches.
	Bibliography Citation Morgan, S. Philip and Heather Rackin. "Comparing Prospective and Retrospective Measures of Unwanted Fertility." Presented: Dallas, TX, Population Association of America Meetings, April 2010.

5.	Morgan, S. Philip Rackin, Heather
5.	Revisiting "Missing the Target": Correspondence of Fertility Intentions and Behavior in the U.S. Presented: Detroit MI, Population Association of America Annual Meeting, April 2009 Cohort(s): NLSY79 Publisher: Population Association of America Keyword(s): Birth Rate; Expectations/Intentions; Family Size; Fertility; Life Course; Marital Status Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher. Most young men and women intend to have children; two children is highly normative and the modal response. Fertility levels well below replacement result because these intentions are not met – a common occurrence in many countries. Using U.S. data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1979 (NLSY79), we examine the co-variation in actual fertility and fertility intentions over a three-decade period. We build on Quesnel-Vallée and Morgan (2003) who used these same data. Specifically, the younger half of the sample has now reached the end of their reproductive years, and we can explore fully the correspondence between intended and realized family size (for women and men in the 1957 to 1964 birth cohorts). We begin to examine causes for the lack of correspondence in intent and behavior by examining the effect of blended families. Blended families change fertility intentions and realizations, contingent upon where previous children reside and other factors.
	Bibliography Citation Morgan, S. Philip and Heather Rackin. "Revisiting "Missing the Target": Correspondence of Fertility Intentions and Behavior in the U.S." Presented: Detroit MI, Population Association of America Annual Meeting, April 2009.

6.	Morgan, S. Philip Rackin, Heather
6.	The Correspondence Between Fertility Intentions and Behavior in the United States Population and Development Review 36,1 (March 2010): 91-118. Also: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00319.x/abstract Cohort(s): NLSY79 Publisher: Population Council Keyword(s): Birth Rate; Expectations/Intentions; Family Size; Fertility; Life Course; Marital Status Using data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we describe the correspondence between intended family size and observed fertility for US men and women in the 1957-64 birth cohorts. Mean fertility intentions calculated from reports given in the mid-20s modestly overstate completed fertility. But discrepancies between stated intent and actual fertility are common--the stated intent at age 24 (for both women and men) is more likely to miss than to match completed fertility. We focus on factors that predict which women and men will have fewer or more children than intended. Consistent with life-course arguments, those unmarried, childless, or (for women) still in school at approximately age 24 were most likely to underachieve their intended parity (i.e., had fewer children than intended at age 24). We discuss how such discrepancies between intentions and behavior may cumulate to produce sizable cross-group fertility differences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Population & Development Review is the property of Blackwell Publishing Limited and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
	Bibliography Citation Morgan, S. Philip and Heather Rackin. "The Correspondence Between Fertility Intentions and Behavior in the United States." Population and Development Review 36,1 (March 2010): 91-118.

7.	Morgan, S. Philip Rybinska, Anna
7.	Fertility Delay and Childlessness in the NLSY-79 Cohort Presented: Washington DC, Population Association of America Annual Meeting, March-April 2016 Cohort(s): NLSY79 Publisher: Population Association of America Keyword(s): Expectations/Intentions; Fertility; Life Course Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher. The 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth provided valuable insights into the process of fertility delay and childlessness for a cohort of American women that recently finished their reproductive careers. We construct lifelines characterizing women’s childless expectations and fertility behavior over the life course as well as analyze the relationship between socio-economic factors and expected childlessness. One fourth of women in this cohort ever-reported a childless expectation. Two patterns capture the majority of childless women’s lifelines: those who repeatedly postponed childbearing and then adopted a childless expectation at older ages and those who expressed ambivalence about parenthood at various ages and never had children. These results show the pitfalls of assigning voluntary and involuntary childlessness to the reproductive experience of childless women. Childless expectations are strong predictors of permanent childlessness, regardless of the age when respondents verbalize them. Socio-economic factors are not strong predictors of expected childlessness.
	Bibliography Citation Morgan, S. Philip and Anna Rybinska. "Fertility Delay and Childlessness in the NLSY-79 Cohort." Presented: Washington DC, Population Association of America Annual Meeting, March-April 2016.

8.	Quesnel-Vallée, Amélie Morgan, S. Philip
8.	Missing the Target? Correspondence of Fertility Intentions and Behavior in the U.S. Population Research and Policy Review 22,5-6 (December 2003): 497-525. Also: http://www.springerlink.com/content/q45281251445l40g/ Cohort(s): NLSY79 Publisher: Kluwer Academic Publishers Keyword(s): Birth Rate; Expectations/Intentions; Family Size; Fertility; Life Course Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher. Building on a framework suggested by Bongaarts (2001) and using data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we describe the correspondence between intended family size and observed fertility for the 1957 to 1961 birth cohorts of U.S. women and men. Over an 18-year period (1982-2000), we show that while aggregate intentions are quite stable, discrepancies are very common at the individual level. Women and men were more likely to err in predicting number of additional births in the period 1982-2000 than to hit their target number. A very strong predictor of over- and underachieving fertility is initial intended parity. Those who intended more than two children tended to have fewer children than intended, while those who intended fewer than two children tended to have more children than intended. In addition and consistent with life course arguments, those unmarried in 1982, childless in 1982, and (for women) still in school in 1982 were most likely to underachieve their 2000 intended parity (i.e., have fewer children than intended). We conclude by reflecting on how the circumstances that allow discrepancies between intentions and behavior to almost "balance" in the U.S. may cumulate differently elsewhere to produce much lower fertility.
	Bibliography Citation Quesnel-Vallée, Amélie and S. Philip Morgan. "Missing the Target? Correspondence of Fertility Intentions and Behavior in the U.S." Population Research and Policy Review 22,5-6 (December 2003): 497-525.

9.	Rackin, Heather M. Bachrach, Christine A. Morgan, S. Philip
9.	When Do Fertility Expectations Predict Fertility? Presented: Boston MA, Population Association of America Annual Meeting, May 2014 Cohort(s): NLSY79 Publisher: Population Association of America Keyword(s): Childbearing; Expectations/Intentions; Fertility; Life Course Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher. This paper grounds its analysis in novel theory (Bachrach and Morgan 2013) that suggests that responses to questions about fertility intentions and expectations may reflect distinct phenomena at distinct points in the life course. The theory suggests that women form ‘true’ intentions when their circumstances make the issue of childbearing salient and urgent enough to draw the cognitive resources needed to make a conscious plan. We use data from the NLSY79 that measures expectations throughout the life course to measure when fertility expectations are most predictive of final parity. We find that as women experience life course transitions that confer statuses normatively associated with childbearing – such as marriage, completion of education, and parenthood– their reported intentions are much better predictors of their fertility than women who have not passed through these life course milestones. We believe this has important implications for both the measurement and conceptualization of fertility intentions.
	Bibliography Citation Rackin, Heather M., Christine A. Bachrach and S. Philip Morgan. "When Do Fertility Expectations Predict Fertility?" Presented: Boston MA, Population Association of America Annual Meeting, May 2014.

10.	Rackin, Heather M. Morgan, S. Philip
10.	Prospective versus Retrospective Measurement of Unwanted Fertility: Strengths, Weaknesses, and Inconsistencies Assessed for a Cohort of US Women Demographic Research 39 (6 July 2018): 61-94. Also: https://www.jstor.org/stable/26585324 Cohort(s): NLSY79 Publisher: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Keyword(s): Fertility; Motherhood; Mothers; Pregnancy and Pregnancy Outcomes; Wantedness Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher. METHODS: Using the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we compare retrospective and prospective reports [of fertility wantedness] for 6,495 births from 3,578 women. RESULTS: The prospective strategy produces a higher percentage of unwanted births than the retrospective strategy. But the two reports of wantedness are strongly associated – especially for the second birth (vs. other births) and for women with stable (vs. unstable) expectation patterns. Nevertheless, discordant reports are common and are predicted by women's characteristics.
	Bibliography Citation Rackin, Heather M. and S. Philip Morgan. "Prospective versus Retrospective Measurement of Unwanted Fertility: Strengths, Weaknesses, and Inconsistencies Assessed for a Cohort of US Women." Demographic Research 39 (6 July 2018): 61-94.

11.	Rybinska, Anna Morgan, S. Philip
11.	Childless Expectations and Childlessness Over the Life Course Social Forces 97,4 (June 2019): 1571-1602. Also: https://academic.oup.com/sf/article/97/4/1571/5126895 Cohort(s): NLSY79 Publisher: Oxford University Press Keyword(s): Childbearing; Expectations/Intentions; Fertility; Life Course Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher. Using nineteen panels of the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY-79), we construct life-lines characterizing women's childless expectations and fertility behavior. One-quarter of women in the NLSY-79 cohort ever reported an expectation for childlessness but only 14.8 percent of women remain childless. Childless women follow two predominant life course paths: (1) repeated postponement of childbearing and the subsequent adoption of a childless expectation at older ages or (2) indecision about parenthood signaled through vacillating reports of childless expectations across various ages. We also find that more than one in ten women became a mother after considering childlessness: an understudied group in research on childlessness and childbearing preferences. These findings reaffirm that it is problematic to assign expected and unexpected childlessness labels to the reproductive experience of childless women. In addition, despite their variability over time, childless expectations strongly predict permanent childlessness, regardless of the age when respondents offer them. Longitudinal logistic regression analysis of these childless expectations indicates a strong effect of childbearing postponement among the increasingly selective group of childless women. However, net of this postponement, few variables commonly associated with childlessness are associated with reports of a childless expectation. We thus conclude that the effects of socio-demographic and situational factors on childless expectations are channeled predominantly through repeated childbearing postponement.
	Bibliography Citation Rybinska, Anna and S. Philip Morgan. "Childless Expectations and Childlessness Over the Life Course." Social Forces 97,4 (June 2019): 1571-1602.

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