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Author: Nord, Roy D.

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1.	Nord, Roy D. Schmitz, E. J. Weiland, T. A.
1.	Propensity and the Enlistment Decision Technical Report No. 723, Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences, 1986 Cohort(s): NLSY79 Publisher: Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences Keyword(s): Behavior; Educational Aspirations/Expectations; Military Enlistment; Military Service; Test Scores/Test theory/IRT; Tests and Testing Enlistment intentions, educational expectations, and sociodemographic factors were examined in the context of their pairwise relationship to the enlistment decision. A model was developed relating enlistments to stated intentions and other variables. This model was then statistically estimated from a sample from the National Longitudinal Survey. Logistic regression was used to predict enlistments from information on intentions and backgrounds. Findings indicated that enlistees in the armed forces experienced an increase in educational expectations not reflected in the general population. A considerable shift was found among enlistees with respect to original enlistment intentions. Enlistment intentions or propensity was the strongest explanatory factor in predicting enlistment. Such factors as educational intentions, race, gender, and test score also contributed substantially (and independently of propensity) to explaining enlistment behavior. A positive change in propensity over time had a positive effect on enlistment probability above and beyond the effect of propensity measured at a single point in time. The effect of Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) scores on the probability of enlistment was positive, but the size of this effect diminished as AFQT increased. A desire for training beyond high school but outside of college was a good predictor of enlistment probability. [ERIC ED-282060]
	Bibliography Citation Nord, Roy D., E. J. Schmitz and T. A. Weiland. "Propensity and the Enlistment Decision." Technical Report No. 723, Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences, 1986.

2.	Verdugo, Naomi Nord, Roy D.
2.	Projections of the Male Youth Population and Enlistment Propensity by Army Recruiting Battalion, 1980-1995 Working Paper Research Product 87-34, Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences, Alexandria VA, 1987. Also: http://www.scientificcommons.org/18466096 Cohort(s): NLSY79 Publisher: Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences Keyword(s): Armed Forces Qualifications Test (AFQT); Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB); Educational Attainment; Ethnic Differences; Geographical Variation; Hispanics; Language Problems; Military Enlistment; Military Recruitment; Profile of American Youth; Racial Differences; Tests and Testing This report provides estimates and projections of the number of 17- to 21-year-old males by race and Hispanic ethnicity in each Army recruiting battalion for the years 1980-1995. Additional estimates are provided by test score category (TSC) on the Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT), high school graduation status, and propensity to enlist in the Army specifically, and a more general propensity to enlist in any service. Population estimates and projections are also provided for Hispanic males aged 17 to 21 in each of 10 states with large Hispanic populations. A variety of data sources were utilized including the Profile of American Youth sample of the NLSY. Findings include evidence of significant population declines in this age group, particularly during the 1980-1985 period. Hardest hit by population declines are the 1st (Northeast) and 4th (Midwest) recruiting brigades. While the overall youth population is declining, the Hispanic population is increasing in both size and proportion. An obstacle to recruiting more Hispanics, however, is that they are less likely to graduate from high school than either whites or blacks. With respect to Insular Puerto Ricans, the inability to speak English prevents many from passing the AFQT.
	Bibliography Citation Verdugo, Naomi and Roy D. Nord. "Projections of the Male Youth Population and Enlistment Propensity by Army Recruiting Battalion, 1980-1995." Working Paper Research Product 87-34, Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences, Alexandria VA, 1987.

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