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Author: Shen, Yu-Chu
Resulting in 2 citations.
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Arkes, Jeremy Shen, Yu-Chu |
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For Better or For Worse, But How About a Recession? Working Paper No. 16525. National Bureau of Economic Research, November 2010. Also: http://www.nber.org/papers/w16525 Cohort(s): NLSY79 Publisher: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Keyword(s): Divorce; Economic Changes/Recession; Marital Instability; Unemployment Rate In light of the current economic crisis, we estimate hazard models of divorce to determine how state and national unemployment rates affect the likelihood of divorce. With 89,340 observations over the 1978-2006 period for 7633 couples from the 1979 NLSY, we find mixed evidence on whether increases in the unemployment rate lead to overall increases in the likelihood of divorce, which would suggest countercyclical divorce probabilities. However, further analysis reveals that the weak evidence is due to the weak economy increasing the risk of divorce only for couples in years 6 to 10 of marriage. For couples in years 1 to 5 and couples married longer than 10 years, there is no evidence of a pattern between the strength of the economy and divorce probabilities. The estimates are generally stronger in magnitude when using national instead of state unemployment rates. |
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Bibliography Citation
Arkes, Jeremy and Yu-Chu Shen. "For Better or For Worse, But How About a Recession?" Working Paper No. 16525. National Bureau of Economic Research, November 2010. |
| 2. |
Arkes, Jeremy Shen, Yu-Chu |
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For Better or For Worse, But How About a Recession? Contemporary Economic Policy 32,2 (April 2014): 275-287. Also: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/coep.12029/abstract Cohort(s): NLSY79 Publisher: Western Economic Association International Keyword(s): Divorce; Economics, Regional; Marital Instability; Modeling, Hazard/Event History/Survival/Duration; Unemployment Rate, Regional In light of the current economic crisis, we estimate hazard models of divorce to determine how state and national unemployment rates affect the likelihood of a divorce or separation. With data in the United States over the 1978–2008 period from the 1979 NLSY, we find some evidence indicating that a higher unemployment rate increases the risk of a marriage ending for couples in years 6–10 of marriage (suggesting counter-cyclical divorce/separation probabilities) but has no significant effect for couples in years 1–5 of marriage and those married longer than 10 years. The estimates are generally stronger in magnitude when using national instead of state unemployment rates and when considering just divorces rather than the first observed divorce or separation. |
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Bibliography Citation
Arkes, Jeremy and Yu-Chu Shen. "For Better or For Worse, But How About a Recession?" Contemporary Economic Policy 32,2 (April 2014): 275-287.
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