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Source: Center for Economic Research (RCER) - University of Rochester

Resulting in 2 citations.

1.	Lochner, Lance John
1.	A Theoretical and Empirical Study of Individual Perceptions of the Criminal Justice System RCER Working Papers No. 483, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER), June 2001. Also: http://rcer.econ.rochester.edu/RCERPAPERS/rcer_483.pdf Cohort(s): NLSY97 Publisher: Center for Economic Research (RCER) - University of Rochester Keyword(s): Arrests; Crime; Heterogeneity; Modeling; Neighborhood Effects Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher. This paper examines perceptions of the criminal justice system held by young males using longitudinal survey data from the recent National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 Cohort and the National Youth Survey. First, a model is developed to study how perceptions respond to individual information about the probability of arrest and how perceptions affect criminal behavior. Then, the model is shown to be consistent with the data. Young males who engage in crime but are not arrested revise their perceived probability of arrest downward, while those who are arrested revise their probability upwards. The perceived probability of arrest is then linked to subsequent criminal behavior - youth with a lower perceived probability of arrest are significantly more likely to engage in crime during subsequent periods. Perceived probabilities of arrest appear to be idiosyncratic and individual-specific. As a result, information about the arrests of others, local neighborhood conditions, and official arrest rates have little impact on the perceptions of any given individual about his own arrest rate. Another interesting feature of the data on perceptions includes the finding that young males typically report a higher probability of arrest than is actually observed in official arrest rates. Consistent with the model, perceived arrest probabilities among those engaged in crime are lower than those of non-criminals. Despite substantial heterogeneity in the perceived probability of arrest across individuals, those perceptions are difficult to predict from standard background measures, ability, and neighborhood characteristics. Most notably, there do not appear to be substantial differences in perceptions across race and ethnicity for most of the crimes studied. These findings suggest that heterogeneity in perceptions may be an important cause for differences in criminal participation across individuals. Furthermore, those perceptions can be influenced by the justice system. A model of belief updating and criminal behavior that is consistent with the data suggests that policies enacted to change the actual probability of arrest will have heterogeneous effects on individuals with different crime and arrest histories, but increases in true arrest rates will lower crime. Since it may take time for information about changes in actual arrest rates to disseminate, changes in enforcement policy are likely to have lagged effects on crime rates.
	Bibliography Citation Lochner, Lance John. "A Theoretical and Empirical Study of Individual Perceptions of the Criminal Justice System." RCER Working Papers No. 483, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER), June 2001.

2.	Lochner, Lance John
2.	Education, Work, and Crime: Theory and Evidence Working Paper No. 465, Center for Economic Research (RCER) - University of Rochester, October 1999. Also: http://rcer.econ.rochester.edu/RCERPAPERS/rcer_465.pdf Cohort(s): NLSY79 Publisher: Center for Economic Research (RCER) - University of Rochester Keyword(s): Crime; Current Population Survey (CPS) / CPS-Fertility Supplement; Endogeneity; Gambling; High School Completion/Graduates; Human Capital; Modeling; Punishment, Criminal; Skills Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher. This paper develops and empirically examines a dynamic model of decisions to work, invest in human capital, and commit crime. By making all three activities endogenous, the model makes a number of new and interesting contributions to the study of crime. First, the model explains why older, more intelligent, and more educated workers tend to commit less of some property crimes than others. Age and education are more negatively correlated with crimes requiring little skill. Second, the model is useful for analyzing the impacts of education, training, and work subsidies on criminal behavior. It predicts that all three subsidy policies can reduce criminal activity. However, short-term wage subsidies only temporarily reduce crime, at the expense of increasing future crime rates. Third, unobserved age differences in on-the-job skill investment explain why wages and crime are more negatively correlated at older ages: at later ages, wages more accurately reflect skill levels and the true opportunity cost of crime. Fourth, the model predicts a rise in youth crime should accompany the recent rise in returns to skill; however, adult crime rates may rise or fall since the most able are likely to reduce their criminal activity when older while the least able increase theirs. Finally, the model suggests that law enforcement policies increase education, training, and labor supply, while reducing criminal activity. A number of testable implications of the model are empirically studied using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY), Current Population Survey (CPS), and Uniform Crime Reports (UCR). Both ability and high school graduation are found to significantly reduce criminal participation among young men in the NLSY. High school graduation also reduces the probability that a young man will become incarcerated sometime in the following five years. While the impact of high school graduation on criminal participation declines with age, its effect on incar ceration is large and relatively stable throughout young adulthood. We also estimate the deterrent effect of more severe punishment, which appears to be strong in the NLSY. Evidence from the UCR and CPS supports our individual-level findings: states with higher high school graduation rates and more severe punishment policies have lower index property crime rates. A number of other predictions are supported by the data, suggesting that the model is useful for studying the interactions of education, work, and crime.
	Bibliography Citation Lochner, Lance John. "Education, Work, and Crime: Theory and Evidence." Working Paper No. 465, Center for Economic Research (RCER) - University of Rochester, October 1999.

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