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Source: Centre for Economic Policy Research

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1.	Boehm, Michael J.
1.	Has Job Polarization Squeezed the Middle Class? Evidence from the Allocation of Talents Discussion Paper No. 1215, Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science, May 2013 Cohort(s): NLSY79, NLSY97 Publisher: Centre for Economic Policy Research, London Keyword(s): Earnings; Job Skills; Occupations; Wage Differentials Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher. Over the last two decades, earnings in the United States increased at the top and at the bottom of the wage distribution but not in the middle - the intensely debated middle class squeeze. At the same time there was a substantial decline of employment in middle-skill production and clerical occupations - so-called job polarization. I study whether job polarization has caused the middle class squeeze. So far little evidence exists about this because the endogenous selection of skills into occupations prevents credible identification of polarization’s effect on wages. I solve the selection-bias problem by studying the changes in returns to occupation-specific skills instead of the changes in occupational wages using data over the two cohorts of the National Longitudinal Study of Youth (NLSY). This data features multidimensional and pre-determined test scores, which predict occupational sorting and thus measure relative occupation-specific skills. My estimation equations are derived from the Roy (1951) model over two cross-sections with job polarization amounting to a shift in the occupationspecific skill prices. In line with polarization, I find that a one percentage point higher propensity to enter high- (low-) as opposed to middle-skill occupations is associated with a .29 (.70) percent increase in expected wages over time. I then compute a counterfactual wage distribution using my estimates of the shifts in occupation-specific skill prices and show that it matches the increase at the top of the wage distribution but fails to explain the increase at the bottom. Thus, despite the strong association of job polarization with changes in the returns to occupation-specific skills, there remains room for alternative (e.g. policy related) explanations about the increase in the lower part of the wage distribution.
	Bibliography Citation Boehm, Michael J. "Has Job Polarization Squeezed the Middle Class? Evidence from the Allocation of Talents." Discussion Paper No. 1215, Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science, May 2013.

2.	Boehm, Michael J.
2.	Job Polarisation and the Decline of Middle-class Workers’ Wages Column, VoxEU.org, Centre for Economic Policy Research, February 8, 2014. Also: http://www.voxeu.org/article/job-polarisation-and-decline-middle-class-workers-wages Cohort(s): NLSY79, NLSY97 Publisher: Centre for Economic Policy Research, London Keyword(s): Earnings; Job Patterns; Job Skills; Occupations; Socioeconomic Status (SES); Wage Differentials Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher. Employment in traditional middle-class jobs has fallen sharply over the last few decades. At the same time, middle-class wages have been stagnant. This column reviews recent research on job polarisation and presents a new study that explicitly links job polarisation with the changes in workers' wages. Job polarisation has a substantial negative effect on middle-skill workers.
	Bibliography Citation Boehm, Michael J. "Job Polarisation and the Decline of Middle-class Workers’ Wages." Column, VoxEU.org, Centre for Economic Policy Research, February 8, 2014.

3.	Burgess, Simon M. Propper, Carol
3.	An Economic Model of Household Income Dynamics, with an Application to Poverty Dynamics Among American Women Discussion Paper Series No. 1830 0265-8003, Centre for Economic Policy Research,London, England March 1998. Also: http://www.cepr.demon.co.uk/pubs/new-dps/dpframen.htm Cohort(s): NLSY79 Publisher: Centre for Economic Policy Research, London Keyword(s): Household Income; Household Models; Labor Force Participation; Poverty; Women's Studies Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher. The rise in inequality and poverty is one of the most important economic and social issues in recent times. But in contrast to the literature on individual earnings inequality, there has been little work modelling (as opposed to documenting) household income dynamics. This is largely because of the difficulties created by the fact that on top of the human capital issues that arise in personal earnings, individuals are continually forming, dissolving and reforming household units. This paper proposes a framework for modelling household income dynamics. It emphasizes the role of household formation and dissolution and labour market participation. It allows standard economic theory to address the issues of household, as distinct from individual, income and poverty dynamics. In this paper, we illustrate this framework with an application to poverty rates among young women in the United States. We use this model to analyse differences in poverty experiences, particularly between black and white women.
	Bibliography Citation Burgess, Simon M. and Carol Propper. "An Economic Model of Household Income Dynamics, with an Application to Poverty Dynamics Among American Women." Discussion Paper Series No. 1830 0265-8003, Centre for Economic Policy Research,London, England March 1998.

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