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Title: An 'Epidemic' Model of Adolescent Sexual Intercourse Prevalences: Applications to National Survey Data
Resulting in 1 citation.
1. Rowe, David C.
Rodgers, Joseph Lee
An 'Epidemic' Model of Adolescent Sexual Intercourse Prevalences: Applications to National Survey Data
Working Paper, School of Family and Consumer Resources, The University of Arizona, Tucson, 1989
Cohort(s): NLSY79
Publisher: School of Family and Consumer Resources, The University of Arizona
Keyword(s): Adolescent Fertility; Behavior; Data Quality/Consistency; Hispanics; Racial Differences; Research Methodology; Sexual Activity; Sexual Behavior; Sexual Experiences/Virginity

Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher.

In this paper, the authors define diffusion models that reflect the spread of certain "adult onset" behaviors through an adolescent population. This general modeling approach has its roots in the mathematics of diffusion and in the epidemiology of infectious disease. Hence, we call this modeling approach "Epidemic Modeling of the Onset of Social Activities" (EMOSA). This paper applies EMOSA modeling to adolescent sexual intercourse using national data from the NLSY. The model allows for an "epidemic" process (the transmission of sexuality from a nonvirgin to a virgin) and a nonepidemic process (two virgins progressing to sexual intercourse). The model also requires that virgin females be pubertally mature before they will progress to sexual intercourse. The model gave excellent fits to national data on Danish whites and a good fit to American whites, but the model-fits for American blacks and hispanics were poorer. The authors cite evidence suggesting that the weakness of the latter model-fits may reflect problems in the reliability of adolescent sexuality data.
Bibliography Citation
Rowe, David C. and Joseph Lee Rodgers. "An 'Epidemic' Model of Adolescent Sexual Intercourse Prevalences: Applications to National Survey Data." Working Paper, School of Family and Consumer Resources, The University of Arizona, Tucson, 1989.