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Author: Bolger, Michelle A.
Resulting in 1 citation.
1. Bolger, Michelle A.
Predicting Arrest Probability Across Time: An Exploration of Competing Risk Perspectives
Journal of Criminal Justice 59 (November-December 2018): 92-109.
Cohort(s): NLSY97
Publisher: Elsevier
Keyword(s): Arrests; Crime; Delinquency/Gang Activity; Gender Differences; Modeling, Latent Class Analysis/Latent Transition Analysis; Risk Perception

Objectives: Criminal involvement is non-randomly distributed across individuals and across groups, resulting in differential probabilities of arrest. Thus, various predictors of arrest probability across time were examined for different groups.

Methods: Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, the current study examined latent class membership in the probability of arrest over a 15-year time span starting when participants were 12-16 years-old and ending when they were 28-31 years-old. Latent class regressions were employed to prospectively investigate whether demographic and criminological risk factors from the base wave could predict class membership.

Results: Results from the latent class growth analyses resulted in three to four classes characterized by an abstainer group, a stable, low-level group, an adolescent-limited group, and a stable moderate-level chronic group. In general, race, poverty, and other risk factors exhibited weak and inconsistent effects in predicting class membership. In contrast, being male and self-reported delinquency were consistent predictors of class membership.

Bibliography Citation
Bolger, Michelle A. "Predicting Arrest Probability Across Time: An Exploration of Competing Risk Perspectives." Journal of Criminal Justice 59 (November-December 2018): 92-109.