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Author: Gonul, Fusun Feride
Resulting in 7 citations.
1. Gonul, Fusun Feride
An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of AFDC on Work, Childbearing, and Marital Status Decisions of Young Women
Paper, Graduate School of Industrial Administration, Carnegie-Mellon University, 1988
Cohort(s): NLSY79
Publisher: Carnegie-Mellon University
Keyword(s): Aid for Families with Dependent Children (AFDC); Childbearing; Hispanics; Labor Force Participation; Life Cycle Research; Marital Status; Simultaneity

Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher.

This paper presents an empirical analysis of labor force participation, marital status and fertility patterns of young Hispanic, black and white women over the observed portion of their life cycle with special attention to the effect of Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) on their decisions. While prior literature has primarily considered effects of AFDC payments on these decision variables separately, there is no comparable evidence when these choices are considered simultaneously. In this study three choice variables, marital status, labor force participation, and fertility, are interacted with each other in a hazard function framework. Estimation is done using data from the NLSY. The main findings are such that a favorable change in the basic AFDC guarantee gives incentives to have a child, and incentives not to work. Impact of AFDC on changes in marital status is found to be insignificant. There is some evidence that the insignificant effect of AFDC on marriage probability is due to the interaction of work and childbearing decisions with the marriage decision.
Bibliography Citation
Gonul, Fusun Feride. "An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of AFDC on Work, Childbearing, and Marital Status Decisions of Young Women." Paper, Graduate School of Industrial Administration, Carnegie-Mellon University, 1988.
2. Gonul, Fusun Feride
Astructural and Structural Methods in the Estimation of Models of Labor Force Participation and Search Behavior
Ph.D. Dissertation, The Ohio State University, 1986. DAI-A 47/08, p. 3144, Feb 1987
Cohort(s): NLSY79
Publisher: UMI - University Microfilms, Bell and Howell Information and Learning
Keyword(s): Behavior; Gender Differences; Job Tenure; Labor Force Participation; Layoffs; Mobility; Research Methodology; Unemployment

My dissertation consists of three essays. Two of the essays belong to the class of astructural models that specify waiting-time distributions with and without time-varying regressors to depict the gross features of dynamic labor force participation behavior. The third essay builds a wealth maximization model that solves for the individual's decision to work or not, and estimates the structural parameters of the model employing a dynamic programming algorithm within a maximum likelihood routine. The first essay is an attempt to determine whether or not unemployment and out of the labor force are distinct states following recent work in this area. Waiting-time distributions are estimated using data from the National Longitudinal Surveys of Labor Market Experience youth cohort, and the two states are tested for equivalence using a restricted sample where transitions between unemployment and out of the labor force are deleted due to insufficient information on beginning and ending dates of these passages. Then all the information in the data is included and the test is performed again with a special treatment of the missing dates using 'an exponential Bessel function' distribution that is developed by enumerating all possible transitions in the period with missing dates. Contrary to previous results, unemployment and out of the labor force are equivalent states for young men. However, they are not equivalent for young women. The second essay discusses the implications and various interpretations of a defective Gompertz-like hazard function widely employed by economists. A nondefective distribution is derived and the performance of both distributions is compared and the predictive power of each distribution is analyzed. If the behavioral model under investigation mostly displays stayer characteristics, then the defective distribution can explain the immobility more parsimoniously than a nondefective one, and if the model mostly displays mover characteristics, then a nondefective distribution has more explanatory power than the defective one. The third essay builds a wealth maximization model of labor force participation in a nonstationary environment with layoffs and uncertain job offers. Given the structural parameter estimates, experiments are performed to ascertain the impact of changes in forcing variables on unemployment and employment duration.
Bibliography Citation
Gonul, Fusun Feride. Astructural and Structural Methods in the Estimation of Models of Labor Force Participation and Search Behavior. Ph.D. Dissertation, The Ohio State University, 1986. DAI-A 47/08, p. 3144, Feb 1987.
3. Gonul, Fusun Feride
Comparison of Hazard Functions with Duration Dependence and Stayer-Mover Structure with an Application to Divorce
Paper, Graduate School of Industrial Administration, Carnegie-Mellon University, 1988
Cohort(s): Young Women
Publisher: Carnegie-Mellon University
Keyword(s): Behavior; Data Analysis; Divorce; Marital Stability; Marriage; Modeling, Hazard/Event History/Survival/Duration; Monte Carlo; Research Methodology; Statistical Analysis

Permission to reprint the abstract has not been received from the publisher.

Performances of hazard functions with an implicit stayer-mover structure are examined in Monte Carlo samples. The results are then applied to data on duration of first marriages from the NLS of Young Women. The Monte Carlo experiments conducted in this study uncover the cases when the built-in stayer-mover structure of the flexible hazard function is useful and when it is not. Only in some cases, the flexible hazard function yields a plausible estimate of the stayer proportion, and in other cases it either under- or over-estimates it. It is important to be aware of this bias if one uses flexible hazard functions to obtain estimates of life time behavior where a change may never take place, as in, for example, divorce for those married.
Bibliography Citation
Gonul, Fusun Feride. "Comparison of Hazard Functions with Duration Dependence and Stayer-Mover Structure with an Application to Divorce." Paper, Graduate School of Industrial Administration, Carnegie-Mellon University, 1988.
4. Gonul, Fusun Feride
Determining Whether Unemployment and Out-of-the-Labor Force are Distinct States
Report, Columbus OH: Center for Human Resource Research, The Ohio State University, 1985
Cohort(s): NLSY79
Publisher: Center for Human Resource Research
Keyword(s): Gender Differences; Labor Force Participation; Unemployment, Youth

This report focuses on the question of whether or not unemployment and out-of-the-labor force are equivalent. It is shown, using data from the 1979 survey of the NLSY, that for males the two states are not distinct while for females the states are distinct. These findings raise serious questions about the meaning of official unemployment statistics.
Bibliography Citation
Gonul, Fusun Feride. "Determining Whether Unemployment and Out-of-the-Labor Force are Distinct States." Report, Columbus OH: Center for Human Resource Research, The Ohio State University, 1985.
5. Gonul, Fusun Feride
Dynamic Labor Force Participation Decisions of Males in the Presence of Layoffs and Uncertain Job Offers
Journal of Human Resources 24,2 (Spring 1989): 195-220.
Also: http://www.jstor.org/stable/145853
Cohort(s): NLSY79
Publisher: University of Wisconsin Press
Keyword(s): Employment; Job Tenure; Labor Force Participation; Layoffs; Unemployment; Unemployment Duration; Wages; Work History

This paper presents a utility maximization model of workers who make decisions to work or not over a life time. When they work they earn wage income, when they do not work they have leisure time but earn no income. The objective is to maximize the presented discounted value of utility arising from the participation decisions. In addition to duration probabilities, state dependence enters the model by the existence of a different risk while working, namely, the dismissal risk, than the one while not working, namely, the possibility of no job offers. The method used in solving and estimating this problem is to embed a dynamic programming algorithm within a maximum likelihood routine. The data are from the NLSY. Given the structural parameter estimates, experiments are performed to ascertain the impact of changes in forcing variables on unemployment and employment duration.
Bibliography Citation
Gonul, Fusun Feride. "Dynamic Labor Force Participation Decisions of Males in the Presence of Layoffs and Uncertain Job Offers." Journal of Human Resources 24,2 (Spring 1989): 195-220.
6. Gonul, Fusun Feride
New Evidence on Whether Unemployment and Out of the Labor Force are Distinct States
Discussion Paper No. 90-6. Economics Research Center-NORC, 1989
Cohort(s): NLSY79
Publisher: National Opinion Research Center - NORC
Keyword(s): Gender Differences; Labor Force Participation; Research Methodology; Unemployment

This paper focuses on the question of whether or not people who are out of the labor force (OLF) should be included in unemployment measures. If people who are OLF can obtain jobs as often as the people who are unemployed, then there is no real distinction between the two states of nonemployment. There have been two studies dealing with this issue in an empirical framework: Clark and Summers (1982) conclude that for teenagers, unemployment and OLF are not distinct states while Flinn and Heckman (1982) find the opposite for white male high school graduates. New evidence for high school graduates is presented by gender, and it is found that while for young women the two states are distinct, for young men they are not. The methodology adopted in this paper enables one to use the incomplete transition data in the NLSY on unemployment and OLF, and to obtain estimates of the full transaction matrix between three labor force states.
Bibliography Citation
Gonul, Fusun Feride. "New Evidence on Whether Unemployment and Out of the Labor Force are Distinct States." Discussion Paper No. 90-6. Economics Research Center-NORC, 1989.
7. Wolpin, Kenneth I.
Gonul, Fusun Feride
On the Use of Expectations Data in Micro Surveys: The Case of Retirement
Report, Columbus OH: Center for Human Resource Research, The Ohio State University, 1985
Cohort(s): Older Men
Publisher: Center for Human Resource Research
Keyword(s): Labor Supply; Retirement

Most large-scale data sets, cross-sectional and longitudinal, contain questions concerned with expectations about future life events, among them future labor force behavior, fertility, schooling, and occupation. The aim of this paper is to ascertain whether data on retirement expectations are consistent with data on actual labor supply in the sense that both are derived from the same optimizing model. The researchers develop a methodology for this purpose and implement it using data from the NLS of Older Men. They find that reported expected retirement ages are actually more accurate than expected retirement ages predicted by the labor supply model, although the correlation between them is significant. This is consistent with the idea that expectations data provide valuable information about labor supply behavior which can be exploited to improve estimates of labor supply models.
Bibliography Citation
Wolpin, Kenneth I. and Fusun Feride Gonul. "On the Use of Expectations Data in Micro Surveys: The Case of Retirement." Report, Columbus OH: Center for Human Resource Research, The Ohio State University, 1985.