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Author: Molloy, Raven

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1.	Molloy, Raven Smith, Christopher L. Wozniak, Abigail
1.	Changing Stability in U.S. Employment Relationships Journal of Human Resources 59,1 (January 2024) 35-69. Also: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.0821-11843 Cohort(s): NLSY79, NLSY97 Publisher: University of Wisconsin Press Keyword(s): Employment; Employment History; Employment Tenure; Employment, Stable/Continuous; Working Patterns We examine how the distribution of employment tenure has changed over time. The fraction of workers with short tenure (less than one year) has fallen since the mid-1990s, a trend associated with fewer workers cycling among briefly held jobs and an increase in perceived job security among short-tenure workers. Meanwhile, the fraction of men with long tenure (20 years or more) has declined markedly, partly due to the secular shift away from the manufacturing sector and the decline in unionization, as well as an increase in mid-career separations during the 1970s and 1980s that reduced the likelihood of reaching long tenure.
	Bibliography Citation Molloy, Raven, Christopher L. Smith and Abigail Wozniak. "Changing Stability in U.S. Employment Relationships." Journal of Human Resources 59,1 (January 2024) 35-69.

2.	Molloy, Raven Smith, Christopher L. Wozniak, Abigail
2.	Declining Migration within the U.S.: The Role of the Labor Market NBER Working Paper No. 20065, National Bureau of Economic Research, April 2014. Also: http://www.nber.org/papers/w20065 Cohort(s): NLSY79, NLSY97, Young Men Publisher: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Keyword(s): Geocoded Data; Job Turnover; Migration; Occupations; Transition, Job to Job; Wage Growth Interstate migration has decreased steadily since the 1980s. We show that this trend is not primarily related to demographic and socioeconomic factors, but instead appears to be connected to a concurrent secular decline in labor market transitions. We explore a number of reasons for the declines in geographic and labor market transitions, and find the strongest support for explanations related to a decrease in the net benefit to changing employers. Our preferred interpretation is that the distribution of relevant outside offers has shifted in a way that has made labor market transitions, and thus geographic transitions, less desirable to workers.
	Bibliography Citation Molloy, Raven, Christopher L. Smith and Abigail Wozniak. "Declining Migration within the U.S.: The Role of the Labor Market." NBER Working Paper No. 20065, National Bureau of Economic Research, April 2014.

3.	Molloy, Raven Smith, Christopher L. Wozniak, Abigail
3.	Declining Migration Within the US: The Role of the Labor Market Discussion Paper No. 2013-27, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Divisions of Research and Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C., April 2013. Also: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2013/201327/201327pap.pdf Cohort(s): NLSY79, NLSY97, Young Men Publisher: Federal Reserve Board Keyword(s): Migration; Occupations; Wage Growth We examine explanations for the secular decline in interstate migration since the 1980s. After showing that demographic and socioeconomic factors can account for little of this decrease, we present evidence suggesting that it is related to a downward trend in labor market transitions—i.e. a decline in the fraction of workers moving from job to job, changing industry, and changing occupation—that occurred over the same period. We explore a number of reasons why these flows have diminished over time, including changes in the distribution of job opportunities across space, polarization in the labor market, concerns of dual-career households, and a strengthening of internal labor markets. We find little empirical support for all but the last of these hypotheses. Specifically, using data from three cohorts of the National Longitudinal Surveys spanning the 1970s to the 2000s, we find that wage gains associated with employer transitions have fallen, possibly signaling a growing role for internal labor markets in determining wages.
	Bibliography Citation Molloy, Raven, Christopher L. Smith and Abigail Wozniak. "Declining Migration Within the US: The Role of the Labor Market." Discussion Paper No. 2013-27, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Divisions of Research and Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C., April 2013.

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